Rush to War, 2001-2003

Unexpected Events

9/11 in 2001

al-Qaeda

Osama bin Laden

Afghanistan “Graveyard of Empires”

Taliban government

“War on Terror”

U.S. operations begin October 19, 2001

Anderson, Bush's Wars, pp. 55-71, 93-129

1) Who were the “neo-conservatives” in the George W. Bush administration? (pp. 60-62)

Why did they push for an invasion of Iraq in the 1990s?

2) How was the U.S. decision to end the policy of containment and go to war against Iraq made from 2002 to 2003?

What “national interests” did the neo-conservatives claim were involved after 9/11?

Why were expert critics of an invasion, such as the U.S. Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute, ignored (p. 125)?

3) How did the Bush administration “market” the war to the U.S. public and international community?

What was the diplomatic strategy to gain international support for the war? How successful was it?

What roles did the media and congress play in evaluating the evidence for and against an invasion?

4) Why did George W. Bush decide to end the policy of containment and go to war against Iraq from 2002 to 2003?

Is the “SOAR method” feasible for presidents and their top advisors?

“Rush to War”

Neoconservative or neocons

“[A]dvocated a tough military policy while using American power for ‘moral good’ in the world” (Anderson, p. 61)

Criticized George H. W. Bush for not removing Saddam Hussein

Neoconservative dominance of decision-making (Anderson, pp. 60-62)

U.S. National interests?

Iraq-al-Qaeda cooperation?

WMDs in Iraq?

*Cherry-picking of evidence

CIA manager quote in Jan. 2003 (Anderson, p. 120)

Middle East and military experts ignored

U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute (Anderson, p. 125)

Ethnocentric assumptions about Iraq (Anderson, p. 128)

"Marketing" of War

Scott McClennan quote (Anderson, p. 101)

Diplomacy downplayed

U.N. Security Council Resolution 1441 empowers weapons inspectors (p. 118)

Inspections never completed (p. 126)

No U.N. Security Council vote on war

No support of NATO, Germany, France, Saudi Arabia or Egypt

“Freedom Fries” (Anderson, p. 126)

U.S. Media generally uncritical (Anderson, p. 124)

False “Leaks”: New York Times reports “fake news” on page 1 (Anderson, p. 105)

Congress votes to authorize war “to defend the national security of the U.S. against the continuing threat posed by Iraq” on Oct. 11, 2002 (Anderson, p. 117)

Senate 77-23

House 296-133

Impediments to Effective Presidential Decision Making

U.S. World view (Group think)

*Isolationism (1920-40)

Cold War (1949-89)

“New World Order” or Pax Americana (1990-2000)

Economic stability

Humanitarian interventions

*“War on Terror” (2001-2008? or 2021?)

al-Qaeda’s role in 9/11

Foreign policy based on emotion (Anderson, p. 124)

Giant federal government bureaucracy

2.65 million civilian employees

Walmart is next largest employer with 1.9 million employees

1.36 million active duty military personnel

800,000 military reservists

Bureaucratic information flow and competition

✓Vice President (*Dick Cheney)

✓Secretary of Defense (*Donald Rumsfeld)

✓Defense Department Intelligence

Joint Chiefs of Staff (Eric Shinseki, Army Chief of Staff)

U.S. Army War College

Secretary of State (*Colin Powell)

State Department Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs

National Security Advisor (Condoleeza Rice)

Intelligence agencies

CIA

George Tenant: “Slam Dunk,” (Anderson, p. 119)

NSA

Distractions

Foreign

International hot spots

Afghanistan

al-Qaeda

Relations with Allies (Britain vs. Germany and France)

Domestic affairs

Economy, crime, education, etc.

Political pressures

Reelection of president and congress

Human fears and frailties of Presidents

Revenge for Saddam’s attempted assassination of George H. W. Bush?

Father-Son competition?

Under spell of Dick Cheney?

Texan Hubris?

Lyndon Johnson and George W. Bush

Bush's “fear of another attack, pride in American values," and hubris that America could change foreign countries (Leffler, Confronting Saddam, Oxford, 2023)?

“Realist” George H. W. Bush vs. *“Neoconservative” George W. Bush

  Gulf War, 1990-91 Invasion of Iraq, 2003
U.S. National interests

Publicized

  • Territorial rights of Kuwait

Unpublicized

  • Oil supplies of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia

Publicized

  • WMD, Iraq-al-Qaeda connection?
  • National transformation?

Unpublicized

  • Oil, Oil industry?
Diplomatic Strategy

“New World Order”

U.N. Security Council support

Arab allies

  • Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Syria,

Western European support

 

"Bush Doctrine"

U.N. Security Council opposed

Arab countries opposed

  • Kuwait only active ally

Britain lone major ally

Military Strategy

*“Powell doctrine”

Overwhelming force

  • 340,000 troops for 17,818 sq km
Exit strategy: Containment
  • Economic sanctions
  • Military sanctions

*“Rumsfeld doctrine”

High tech warfare
  • 145,000 troops for 438,317 sq km
No realistic exit strategy